On Wednesday 28 October 2026, John Healey will stand up in the House of Commons to deliver his first Budget as Chancellor, and the first of Andy Burnham's government. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its updated economic and fiscal forecast on the same day.
It promises to be an unusual one. The new Prime Minister and Chancellor will have been in post for barely three months. The date is around a month earlier than last year's Budget, chosen deliberately to shorten the season of speculation. And, so far at least, there has been very little leaking of specific tax measures. Some commentators think it could be one of the least predictable Budgets in years.
That makes it tempting to either panic or ignore it altogether. Neither is a good plan. This article sets out what we actually know, what's being talked about, and what you can sensibly do in the next four weeks. We'll publish a follow-up after 28 October covering what was actually announced.
The backdrop: tight finances and narrow options
The Chancellor's message so far has been consistent: fiscal discipline first. In his speech to Labour's conference in Liverpool on 28 September, he committed to meeting the government's fiscal rules and to keeping a "buffer against uncertainty", while announcing measures including a mayor-led apprenticeship service and a £6 billion boost for UK shipbuilding.
The difficulty is the size of that buffer. At the November 2025 Budget, the previous Chancellor built fiscal headroom of around £22 billion. Rising government borrowing costs, the conflict in the Middle East, higher defence commitments and cost-of-living measures have eaten into it since. Estimates of what remains range from around £5 billion to £10 billion. Most observers therefore expect some tax rises alongside spending restraint.
What's been ruled out
The Prime Minister has confirmed that the government will stick to Labour's 2024 manifesto pledge not to raise the rates of income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT. Together, those three taxes raise close to 60% of all tax receipts, so the Chancellor's biggest levers are effectively off the table.
For businesses, the manifesto also committed to capping the main rate of Corporation Tax at 25% for this Parliament, and to keeping investment incentives such as full expensing and the Annual Investment Allowance. The Chancellor has reportedly said he'll honour those pledges.
The government has also said it has no plans for a flat 10% inheritance tax on all estates, which was floated in the press, and has indicated that this Budget won't abolish stamp duty or council tax.
Two words of caution. First, the pledge covers tax rates, not thresholds. Second, "not in this Budget" isn't the same as "never".
What's already law, whatever happens on 28 October
It's easy to focus on the rumours and miss the changes that are already legislated. Several significant measures from the November 2025 Budget are locked in and will happen regardless:
| Change | From | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Income tax thresholds frozen | Until April 2031 | The £12,570 Personal Allowance and £50,270 higher-rate threshold stay put, so pay rises continue to pull more income into higher bands |
| Dividend tax rates rise | Already in force (April 2026) | 10.75% basic rate, 35.75% higher rate |
| Business Asset Disposal Relief rate rises | Already in force (April 2026) | 18% on qualifying gains |
| Savings income tax up 2 points | 6 April 2027 | Interest outside an ISA taxed at 22%, 42% and 47% |
| Property income tax up 2 points | 6 April 2027 | Rental profits taxed at 22%, 42% and 47% |
| Unused pensions brought into inheritance tax | 6 April 2027 | Most unused pension pots and death benefits count towards the estate |
| Cash ISA limit cut to £12,000 (under-65s) | 6 April 2027 | The rest of the £20,000 allowance must go into stocks and shares |
| High Value Council Tax Surcharge | April 2028 | Annual charge on homes in England worth £2 million or more |
| NI relief on salary sacrifice pensions capped | April 2029 | Relief limited to the first £2,000 a year |
Making Tax Digital for Income Tax is also rolling out: it began in April 2026 for sole traders and landlords with qualifying income above £50,000, and extends to those above £30,000 from April 2027.
For many of our clients, these existing changes will matter more than anything announced on Budget day, and they're worth planning around now.
Where the speculation is pointing
With the big three taxes ruled out, attention has turned to wealth, assets and property. The Prime Minister has long argued that the UK taxes work more heavily than wealth, although he has more recently stressed that he doesn't intend to drive wealthy people out of the country. Everything below is speculation, not policy.
Capital Gains Tax
CGT is widely seen as the most exposed tax. The main rates rose to 18% and 24% in October 2024, and some within the Labour party have called for alignment with income tax rates. That said, talk of full alignment has cooled, partly because HMRC's own modelling suggests that pushing rates much higher could reduce revenue as people simply hold on to assets.
A more frequently reported option is ending the CGT "uplift on death", under which assets are revalued when someone dies so that gains built up during their lifetime are never taxed. Estimates suggest this could raise £1.5 billion to £2 billion a year.
Inheritance tax reliefs
The Prime Minister has said he's willing to look again at the restrictions to Agricultural Property Relief that took effect in April 2026. Whether that extends to Business Property Relief, which also affects family-owned trading companies, is unclear. The nil-rate band is already frozen at £325,000 until April 2031.
Property
There are reports that the threshold for the new High Value Council Tax Surcharge could be lowered from £2 million to £1.5 million before it starts in 2028. The Prime Minister has long supported a Land Value Tax, but it's considered unlikely for this Budget.
Pensions
Restricting higher-rate tax relief or reducing the 25% tax-free lump sum comes up before almost every Budget and is rarely acted on. With the salary sacrifice cap and the inheritance tax change already booked, many commentators expect no further pension changes this year.
Business taxes
Wider business rates reform has been promised, including changes to Small Business Rates Relief, alongside a 20% rates cut for pubs, social clubs and live music venues in England from April 2027. Sector-specific levies, particularly on banks, are being discussed. There's also been speculation about positive changes to the Enterprise Management Incentive (EMI) scheme, and less welcome talk of reforms to VAT, such as a lower registration threshold. Early-stage consultations are also looking at how distributions are taxed, which could eventually affect share buybacks and company exits.
More HMRC scrutiny
Regardless of headline measures, expect HMRC compliance activity to keep rising. The government is targeting an extra £10 billion a year from closing the tax gap by 2029/30, backed by heavy investment in HMRC's digital tools and data. Good records have never been more valuable.
What it could mean for you
Company owners and directors
Corporation Tax rates look safe, and dividend rates have already risen. The bigger questions are around exit planning: if you're considering selling your business, a change to CGT or BPR could affect both the timing and the structure. Reviewing your salary and dividend mix for the rest of the tax year is sensible whatever happens.
Founders and growing businesses
Watch for any changes to EMI, the venture capital schemes (SEIS and EIS) and the taxation of distributions. Positive EMI changes could make equity incentives even more useful for hiring.
Investors, landlords and second-home owners
CGT is the tax most exposed to change on the day, and property income tax rates are already rising from April 2027. If you're planning a disposal, it's worth modelling the numbers under the current rules and some plausible alternatives.
Families and estate planning
The April 2027 pension change is already law, so reviewing your pension nominations and overall estate position makes sense now. Any change to CGT uplift on death, or to IHT reliefs, would add to the picture.
Our maritime clients
No yacht-specific measures have been trailed, and the shipbuilding funding announced at conference relates mainly to defence and naval projects. For yacht owners, the relevant watch points are the general ones: CGT on a future sale, inheritance tax on assets held personally or through companies, and any changes affecting company structures. For crew, there's no indication of changes to the Seafarers' Earnings Deduction.
What to do before 28 October (and what not to do)
Don't act on rumours alone. Tax changes can take effect from Budget day itself, as the CGT rate increase did in October 2024, and Budgets sometimes include anti-forestalling rules aimed at transactions rushed through in anticipation. A hurried sale or gift made for tax reasons alone can easily turn out worse than waiting.
Do take stock under today's rules. Sensible steps include:
- Model any planned disposals of shares, a business or property under current CGT rates, so you can act quickly and confidently once the Budget is known.
- Review salary, dividends and pension contributions for the current tax year, bearing in mind the higher dividend rates already in force.
- Use this year's allowances, including the £20,000 ISA allowance while under-65s can still put all of it into cash.
- Check pension nominations ahead of pensions entering inheritance tax from April 2027.
- Plan for April 2027's higher savings and property income tax rates, and for Making Tax Digital if you're a landlord or sole trader.
- Get your records in order, whatever the Budget brings, more HMRC scrutiny is a safe prediction.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Autumn Budget 2026?
Wednesday 28 October 2026. The Chancellor's statement usually follows Prime Minister's Questions at around 12:30pm, and the OBR publishes its forecast the same day.
Will income tax go up?
The rates of income tax, employee National Insurance and VAT won't rise, according to the government's manifesto commitment. But thresholds are frozen until 2031, so many people will continue to pay more tax as their income grows.
Is Capital Gains Tax going up?
Nobody knows yet. It's one of the most talked-about areas, but no proposals have been announced, and HMRC's own analysis suggests large rate rises could be counterproductive.
Should I sell assets before the Budget?
Not purely because of rumours. Changes can apply from Budget day, and anti-forestalling rules can catch rushed transactions. If a disposal is already planned for good commercial reasons, it's worth reviewing the timing with an adviser now.
Will Corporation Tax change?
The main rate is capped at 25% under the manifesto, and full expensing and the Annual Investment Allowance are due to stay. Smaller targeted changes and sector levies remain possible.
How Higginson James can help
Budgets are about more than headlines. The details, and how they interact with changes already in the pipeline, are where the real planning opportunities and pitfalls sit.
If you'd like a pre-Budget review of your position, whether that's a planned business sale, your remuneration strategy, a property or investment disposal, or your wider estate plans, get in touch to arrange a consultation. And look out for our follow-up article after 28 October, where we'll set out what was actually announced and what it means for you.
This article reflects publicly available information and commentary as at 29 September 2026. Measures described as rumoured or speculated have not been announced and may not happen. It isn't tax advice for your specific circumstances.